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Marbella vs Huracán Melilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Marbella
Marbella
FT
10 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
Huracán Melilla
Huracán Melilla
4/1/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 28Banús Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Marbella92%
×Draw6%
Huracán Melilla2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marbella
3.53
Huracán Melilla
0.39

Marbella creates 805% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 15 away

creates per match

Marbella
2.39
Huracán Melilla
0.20

allows per match

Marbella
0.58
Huracán Melilla
4.67

finishing

Marbella+0.00on par
Huracán Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marbella ↓

Huracán Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–016%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–014%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (16%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Marbella or draw
98%
Marbella or Huracán Melilla
94%
Draw or Huracán Melilla
8%

Winning margin

Marbella wins by 2+
78%
Huracán Melilla wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Marbella 1+ goals
97%
Marbella 2+ goals
86%
Marbella 3+ goals
66%
Huracán Melilla 1+ goals
32%
Huracán Melilla 2+ goals
6%
Huracán Melilla 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Marbella (draw refunded)
98%
Huracán Melilla (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marbella at home — creates 2.39, concedes 0.58 · 31 matches

Huracán Melilla away — creates 0.20, concedes 4.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marbella attack 2.39 + Huracán Melilla defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 3.53

Huracán Melilla attack 0.20 + Marbella defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Marbella scores more
92%
level
6%
Huracán Melilla scores more
2%

Marbella at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Marbella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marbella vs Huracán Melilla

Marbella beat Huracán Melilla 10-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Banús Football Center in Marbella.