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Huracán Melilla vs Marbella — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Huracán Melilla
Huracán Melilla
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Marbella
Marbella
12/8/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 13Estadio La Espiguera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Huracán Melilla7%
×Draw16%
Marbella77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huracán Melilla
0.57
Marbella
2.33

Marbella creates 309% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 31 away

creates per match

Huracán Melilla
0.33
Marbella
1.39

allows per match

Huracán Melilla
3.27
Marbella
0.81

finishing

Huracán Melilla+0.00on par
Marbella+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracán Melilla ↓

Marbella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–113%
0–215%
0–312%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Huracán Melilla or draw
23%
Huracán Melilla or Marbella
84%
Draw or Marbella
93%

Winning margin

Huracán Melilla wins by 2+
2%
Marbella wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

Huracán Melilla 1+ goals
43%
Huracán Melilla 2+ goals
11%
Huracán Melilla 3+ goals
2%
Marbella 1+ goals
90%
Marbella 2+ goals
67%
Marbella 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Huracán Melilla (draw refunded)
9%
Marbella (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracán Melilla at home — creates 0.33, concedes 3.27 · 15 matches

Marbella away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.81 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracán Melilla attack 0.33 + Marbella defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.57

Marbella attack 1.39 + Huracán Melilla defence 3.27 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Huracán Melilla scores more
7%
level
16%
Marbella scores more
77%

Marbella at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Marbella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huracán Melilla vs Marbella

Marbella beat Huracán Melilla 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 8, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Espiguera in Melilla.