Maranhão 0–1 Sampaio Correa: Result & Stats

Maranhão

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sampaio Correa

Nadson 35'

6/15/2024

League #608 · FinalsEstádio Governador João Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Maranhão40%

×Draw32%

Sampaio Correa28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MaranhãoExpected goals in this matchSampaio Correa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.84

Maranhão

1.06

Sampaio Correa

0.84

Maranhão creates 26% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 16 away

1.50

creates per match

0.88

0.80

allows per match

0.63

creates per match

Maranhão

1.50

Sampaio Correa

0.88

allows per match

Maranhão

0.80

Sampaio Correa

0.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maranhão+0.00on par

Sampaio Correa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maranhão ↓

Sampaio Correa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Maranhão or draw

72%

Maranhão or Sampaio Correa

68%

Draw or Sampaio Correa

60%

Winning margin

Maranhão wins by 2+

16%

Sampaio Correa wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Maranhão 1+ goals

65%

Maranhão 2+ goals

29%

Maranhão 3+ goals

9%

Sampaio Correa 1+ goals

57%

Sampaio Correa 2+ goals

21%

Sampaio Correa 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Maranhão (draw refunded)

59%

Sampaio Correa (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maranhão at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Sampaio Correa away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maranhão attack 1.50 + Sampaio Correa defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.06

Sampaio Correa attack 0.88 + Maranhão defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Maranhão scores more

40%

level

32%

Sampaio Correa scores more

28%

Maranhão at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Maranhão will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

Nadson

61'

Rafael← Nathan

61'

João Felipe← Nadson

67'

Franklin← Edson

82'

Betão← Gazão

90+6'

Alexandre← Adeílson Maranhão

90+6'

Guilherme Capote← Vinicius Barata

90'

Edrean← Pimentinha

90'

Eloir← Ferreira

Maranhão

Sampaio

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Vinícius Saldanha

61'▲Rafael←▼Nathan

67'▲Franklin←▼Edson

90+6'▲Alexandre←▼Adeílson Maranhão

90+6'▲Guilherme Capote←▼Vinicius Barata

Maranhão substitutes

RafaelFranklinAlexandreCapoteAraçoiabaBacurauCaviDenilsonLeonardoJeanYozeffBedeu

Manager: Zé Augusto

61'▲João Felipe←▼Nadson

82'▲Betão←▼Gazão

90'▲Edrean←▼Pimentinha

90'▲Eloir←▼Ferreira

Sampaio Correa substitutes

FelipeBetãoEdreanEloirJúniorAdrianoAlanEduardoCebolinhaItambéFonsecaLopes

League #608: Maranhão 0–1 Sampaio Correa

Sampaio Correa beat Maranhão 1-0 in League #608 on June 15, 2024.

Goals: Nadson (35').

The match was played at Estádio Governador João Castelo in São Luís, Maranhão.

Maranhão vs Sampaio Correa — League #608 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #608: Maranhão 0–1 Sampaio Correa