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Maranhão vs Altos — Serie D 2026

Maranhão
Maranhão
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Altos
Altos
4/19/2025Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Governador João Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Maranhão47%
×Draw25%
Altos28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maranhão
1.56
Altos
1.13

Maranhão creates 38% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 43 away

creates per match

Maranhão
1.81
Altos
1.37

allows per match

Maranhão
0.88
Altos
1.30

finishing

Maranhão+0.00on par
Altos+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maranhão ↓

Altos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Maranhão or draw
72%
Maranhão or Altos
75%
Draw or Altos
53%

Winning margin

Maranhão wins by 2+
24%
Altos wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Maranhão 1+ goals
79%
Maranhão 2+ goals
46%
Maranhão 3+ goals
21%
Altos 1+ goals
68%
Altos 2+ goals
31%
Altos 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Maranhão (draw refunded)
63%
Altos (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maranhão at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.88 · 32 matches

Altos away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.30 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maranhão attack 1.81 + Altos defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.56

Altos attack 1.37 + Maranhão defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Maranhão scores more
47%
level
25%
Altos scores more
28%

Maranhão at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Maranhão will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maranhão vs Altos

Maranhão and Altos drew 1-1 in Serie D on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Governador João Castelo in São Luís, Maranhão.