Altos 1–1 Maranhão: Result & Stats

Altos

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Maranhão

2/14/2024

Copa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 3Estádio Municipal Lindolfo Monteiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Altos54%

×Draw26%

Maranhão21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AltosExpected goals in this matchMaranhão

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.87

Altos

1.56

Maranhão

0.87

Altos creates 79% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 8 away

1.11

creates per match

1.00

0.74

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Altos

1.11

Maranhão

1.00

allows per match

Altos

0.74

Maranhão

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Altos+0.00on par

Maranhão+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altos ↓

Maranhão →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Altos or draw

79%

Altos or Maranhão

74%

Draw or Maranhão

46%

Winning margin

Altos wins by 2+

28%

Maranhão wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Altos 1+ goals

79%

Altos 2+ goals

46%

Altos 3+ goals

21%

Maranhão 1+ goals

58%

Maranhão 2+ goals

22%

Maranhão 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Altos (draw refunded)

72%

Maranhão (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altos at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Maranhão away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altos attack 1.11 + Maranhão defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Maranhão attack 1.00 + Altos defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Altos scores more

54%

level

26%

Maranhão scores more

21%

Altos at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Altos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff