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Maracena vs Málaga II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Maracena
Maracena
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Málaga II
Málaga II
4/7/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 28Campo de Futbol 2 Maracena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Maracena33%
×Draw27%
Málaga II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maracena
1.19
Málaga II
1.33

Málaga II creates 12% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 92 away

creates per match

Maracena
1.28
Málaga II
1.35

allows per match

Maracena
1.30
Málaga II
1.10

finishing

Maracena+0.00on par
Málaga II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maracena ↓

Málaga II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Maracena or draw
60%
Maracena or Málaga II
73%
Draw or Málaga II
67%

Winning margin

Maracena wins by 2+
14%
Málaga II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Maracena 1+ goals
70%
Maracena 2+ goals
33%
Maracena 3+ goals
12%
Málaga II 1+ goals
74%
Málaga II 2+ goals
38%
Málaga II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Maracena (draw refunded)
45%
Málaga II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maracena at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.30 · 60 matches

Málaga II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maracena attack 1.28 + Málaga II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.19

Málaga II attack 1.35 + Maracena defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Maracena scores more
33%
level
27%
Málaga II scores more
40%

Málaga II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Málaga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Maracena 2–2 Málaga II

Maracena and Málaga II drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol 2 Maracena in Maracena.