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Málaga II vs Maracena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Málaga II
Málaga II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Maracena
Maracena
11/19/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 11Ciudad Deportiva de la Federación Malagueña de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Málaga II63%
×Draw22%
Maracena15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Málaga II
1.85
Maracena
0.77

Málaga II creates 140% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 61 away

creates per match

Málaga II
2.03
Maracena
0.85

allows per match

Málaga II
0.69
Maracena
1.67

finishing

Málaga II+0.00on par
Maracena+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Málaga II ↓

Maracena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Málaga II or draw
85%
Málaga II or Maracena
78%
Draw or Maracena
37%

Winning margin

Málaga II wins by 2+
37%
Maracena wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Málaga II 1+ goals
84%
Málaga II 2+ goals
55%
Málaga II 3+ goals
28%
Maracena 1+ goals
54%
Maracena 2+ goals
18%
Maracena 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Málaga II (draw refunded)
81%
Maracena (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Málaga II at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.69 · 91 matches

Maracena away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.67 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Málaga II attack 2.03 + Maracena defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.85

Maracena attack 0.85 + Málaga II defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Málaga II scores more
63%
level
22%
Maracena scores more
15%

Málaga II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Málaga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Málaga II 3–0 Maracena

Málaga II beat Maracena 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de la Federación Malagueña de Fútbol in Málaga.