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Maracena vs Arenas Armilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Maracena
Maracena
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Arenas Armilla
Arenas Armilla
12/11/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 14Campo de Futbol 2 Maracena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Maracena38%
×Draw28%
Arenas Armilla34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maracena
1.22
Arenas Armilla
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 68 away

creates per match

Maracena
1.28
Arenas Armilla
0.94

allows per match

Maracena
1.30
Arenas Armilla
1.16

finishing

Maracena+0.00on par
Arenas Armilla+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maracena ↓

Arenas Armilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Maracena or draw
66%
Maracena or Arenas Armilla
72%
Draw or Arenas Armilla
62%

Winning margin

Maracena wins by 2+
17%
Arenas Armilla wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Maracena 1+ goals
70%
Maracena 2+ goals
34%
Maracena 3+ goals
12%
Arenas Armilla 1+ goals
67%
Arenas Armilla 2+ goals
31%
Arenas Armilla 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Maracena (draw refunded)
53%
Arenas Armilla (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maracena at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.30 · 60 matches

Arenas Armilla away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maracena attack 1.28 + Arenas Armilla defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.22

Arenas Armilla attack 0.94 + Maracena defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Maracena scores more
38%
level
28%
Arenas Armilla scores more
34%

Maracena at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Maracena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maracena vs Arenas Armilla

Maracena and Arenas Armilla drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 11, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de Futbol 2 Maracena in Maracena.