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Arenas Armilla vs Maracena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Arenas Armilla
Arenas Armilla
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Maracena
Maracena
12/2/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 13Estadio Nuevo Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Arenas Armilla49%
×Draw26%
Maracena25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arenas Armilla
1.48
Maracena
0.98

Arenas Armilla creates 51% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 61 away

creates per match

Arenas Armilla
1.29
Maracena
0.85

allows per match

Arenas Armilla
1.10
Maracena
1.67

finishing

Arenas Armilla+0.00on par
Maracena+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Armilla ↓

Maracena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Arenas Armilla or draw
75%
Arenas Armilla or Maracena
74%
Draw or Maracena
51%

Winning margin

Arenas Armilla wins by 2+
24%
Maracena wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Arenas Armilla 1+ goals
77%
Arenas Armilla 2+ goals
43%
Arenas Armilla 3+ goals
19%
Maracena 1+ goals
62%
Maracena 2+ goals
26%
Maracena 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Arenas Armilla (draw refunded)
66%
Maracena (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenas Armilla at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.10 · 68 matches

Maracena away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.67 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Armilla attack 1.29 + Maracena defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

Maracena attack 0.85 + Arenas Armilla defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Arenas Armilla scores more
49%
level
26%
Maracena scores more
25%

Arenas Armilla at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Arenas Armilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arenas Armilla vs Maracena

Arenas Armilla beat Maracena 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal in Armilla.