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Mara Sugar vs Luanda Villa — Super League 2018

Mara Sugar
Mara Sugar
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Luanda Villa
Luanda Villa
1/6/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 15Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Mara Sugar58%
×Draw25%
Luanda Villa17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mara Sugar
1.60
Luanda Villa
0.73

Mara Sugar creates 119% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 56 away

creates per match

Mara Sugar
1.91
Luanda Villa
0.64

allows per match

Mara Sugar
0.81
Luanda Villa
1.30

finishing

Mara Sugar+0.00on par
Luanda Villa+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mara Sugar ↓

Luanda Villa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mara Sugar or draw
83%
Mara Sugar or Luanda Villa
75%
Draw or Luanda Villa
42%

Winning margin

Mara Sugar wins by 2+
32%
Luanda Villa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mara Sugar 1+ goals
80%
Mara Sugar 2+ goals
47%
Mara Sugar 3+ goals
22%
Luanda Villa 1+ goals
52%
Luanda Villa 2+ goals
17%
Luanda Villa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mara Sugar (draw refunded)
77%
Luanda Villa (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mara Sugar at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.81 · 54 matches

Luanda Villa away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mara Sugar attack 1.91 + Luanda Villa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.60

Luanda Villa attack 0.64 + Mara Sugar defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Mara Sugar scores more
58%
level
25%
Luanda Villa scores more
17%

Mara Sugar at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Mara Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mara Sugar vs Luanda Villa

Mara Sugar beat Luanda Villa 2-1 in Super League on January 6, 2024.

The match was played at Green Stadium in Awendo.