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Luanda Villa vs Mara Sugar — Super League 2018

Luanda Villa
Luanda Villa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Mara Sugar
Mara Sugar
5/5/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 30Mumboha Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Luanda Villa42%
×Draw27%
Mara Sugar31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luanda Villa
1.32
Mara Sugar
1.09

Luanda Villa creates 21% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 52 away

creates per match

Luanda Villa
1.49
Mara Sugar
1.31

allows per match

Luanda Villa
0.88
Mara Sugar
1.15

finishing

Luanda Villa+0.00on par
Mara Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luanda Villa ↓

Mara Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Luanda Villa or draw
69%
Luanda Villa or Mara Sugar
73%
Draw or Mara Sugar
58%

Winning margin

Luanda Villa wins by 2+
19%
Mara Sugar wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Luanda Villa 1+ goals
73%
Luanda Villa 2+ goals
38%
Luanda Villa 3+ goals
15%
Mara Sugar 1+ goals
66%
Mara Sugar 2+ goals
30%
Mara Sugar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Luanda Villa (draw refunded)
58%
Mara Sugar (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luanda Villa at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.88 · 57 matches

Mara Sugar away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luanda Villa attack 1.49 + Mara Sugar defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.32

Mara Sugar attack 1.31 + Luanda Villa defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Luanda Villa scores more
42%
level
27%
Mara Sugar scores more
31%

Luanda Villa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Luanda Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Luanda Villa vs Mara Sugar

Mara Sugar beat Luanda Villa 2-1 in Super League on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Mumboha Sports Ground in Luanda.