Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mara Sugar vs Kisumu All Stars — Super League 2018

Mara Sugar
Mara Sugar
FT
2 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Kisumu All Stars
Kisumu All Stars
12/9/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 13Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Mara Sugar58%
×Draw24%
Kisumu All Stars18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mara Sugar
1.71
Kisumu All Stars
0.85

Mara Sugar creates 101% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 107 away

creates per match

Mara Sugar
1.91
Kisumu All Stars
0.90

allows per match

Mara Sugar
0.81
Kisumu All Stars
1.51

finishing

Mara Sugar+0.00on par
Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mara Sugar ↓

Kisumu All Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mara Sugar or draw
82%
Mara Sugar or Kisumu All Stars
76%
Draw or Kisumu All Stars
42%

Winning margin

Mara Sugar wins by 2+
32%
Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mara Sugar 1+ goals
82%
Mara Sugar 2+ goals
51%
Mara Sugar 3+ goals
24%
Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals
57%
Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals
21%
Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mara Sugar (draw refunded)
76%
Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mara Sugar at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.81 · 54 matches

Kisumu All Stars away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.51 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mara Sugar attack 1.91 + Kisumu All Stars defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.71

Kisumu All Stars attack 0.90 + Mara Sugar defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Mara Sugar scores more
58%
level
24%
Kisumu All Stars scores more
18%

Mara Sugar at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Mara Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Mara Sugar 2–5 Kisumu All Stars

Kisumu All Stars beat Mara Sugar 5-2 in Super League on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Green Stadium in Awendo.