Kisumu All Stars 2–3 Mara Sugar: Result & Stats

Kisumu All Stars

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Mara Sugar

5/12/2024

Super League · Round 31Moi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Kisumu All Stars41%

×Draw28%

Mara Sugar31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kisumu All StarsExpected goals in this matchMara Sugar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.06

Kisumu All Stars

1.27

Mara Sugar

1.06

Kisumu All Stars creates 20% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 52 away

1.39

creates per match

1.31

0.82

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Kisumu All Stars

1.39

Mara Sugar

1.31

allows per match

Kisumu All Stars

0.82

Mara Sugar

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par

Mara Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kisumu All Stars ↓

Mara Sugar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Kisumu All Stars or draw

69%

Kisumu All Stars or Mara Sugar

72%

Draw or Mara Sugar

59%

Winning margin

Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+

18%

Mara Sugar wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals

72%

Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals

36%

Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals

14%

Mara Sugar 1+ goals

65%

Mara Sugar 2+ goals

29%

Mara Sugar 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)

57%

Mara Sugar (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kisumu All Stars at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.82 · 108 matches

Mara Sugar away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kisumu All Stars attack 1.39 + Mara Sugar defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.27

Mara Sugar attack 1.31 + Kisumu All Stars defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kisumu All Stars scores more

41%

level

28%

Mara Sugar scores more

31%

Kisumu All Stars at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kisumu All Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff