Mara Sugar 4–0 Kajiado: Result & Stats

Mara Sugar

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Kajiado

6/7/2023

Super League · Round 32Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Mara Sugar67%

×Draw19%

Kajiado14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mara SugarExpected goals in this matchKajiado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

0.88

Mara Sugar

2.21

Kajiado

0.88

Mara Sugar creates 151% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 35 away

1.91

creates per match

0.94

0.81

allows per match

2.51

creates per match

Mara Sugar

1.91

Kajiado

0.94

allows per match

Mara Sugar

0.81

Kajiado

2.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mara Sugar+0.00on par

Kajiado+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mara Sugar ↓

Kajiado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Mara Sugar or draw

86%

Mara Sugar or Kajiado

81%

Draw or Kajiado

33%

Winning margin

Mara Sugar wins by 2+

44%

Kajiado wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Mara Sugar 1+ goals

89%

Mara Sugar 2+ goals

65%

Mara Sugar 3+ goals

38%

Kajiado 1+ goals

59%

Kajiado 2+ goals

22%

Kajiado 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Mara Sugar (draw refunded)

83%

Kajiado (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mara Sugar at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.81 · 54 matches

Kajiado away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.51 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mara Sugar attack 1.91 + Kajiado defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.21

Kajiado attack 0.94 + Mara Sugar defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Mara Sugar scores more

67%

level

19%

Kajiado scores more

14%

Mara Sugar at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Mara Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff