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Kajiado vs Mara Sugar — Super League 2018

Kajiado
Kajiado
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Mara Sugar
Mara Sugar
2/3/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 18Ildamat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Kajiado36%
×Draw26%
Mara Sugar38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kajiado
1.32
Mara Sugar
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 52 away

creates per match

Kajiado
1.49
Mara Sugar
1.31

allows per match

Kajiado
1.43
Mara Sugar
1.15

finishing

Kajiado+0.00on par
Mara Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kajiado ↓

Mara Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kajiado or draw
62%
Kajiado or Mara Sugar
74%
Draw or Mara Sugar
64%

Winning margin

Kajiado wins by 2+
16%
Mara Sugar wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kajiado 1+ goals
73%
Kajiado 2+ goals
38%
Kajiado 3+ goals
15%
Mara Sugar 1+ goals
75%
Mara Sugar 2+ goals
40%
Mara Sugar 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kajiado (draw refunded)
48%
Mara Sugar (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kajiado at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

Mara Sugar away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kajiado attack 1.49 + Mara Sugar defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.32

Mara Sugar attack 1.31 + Kajiado defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kajiado scores more
36%
level
26%
Mara Sugar scores more
38%

Mara Sugar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mara Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Kajiado 1–2 Mara Sugar

Mara Sugar beat Kajiado 2-1 in Super League on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Ildamat Stadium in Kajiado.