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Mara Sugar vs Darajani Gogo — Super League 2018

Mara Sugar
Mara Sugar
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Darajani Gogo
Darajani Gogo
V. Ngume 77'
P. Nyakwakwa 58', 6'
5/14/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 28Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Mara Sugar56%
×Draw25%
Darajani Gogo19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mara Sugar
1.59
Darajani Gogo
0.81

Mara Sugar creates 96% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 72 away

creates per match

Mara Sugar
1.91
Darajani Gogo
0.82

allows per match

Mara Sugar
0.81
Darajani Gogo
1.28

finishing

Mara Sugar+0.00on par
Darajani Gogo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mara Sugar ↓

Darajani Gogo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mara Sugar or draw
81%
Mara Sugar or Darajani Gogo
75%
Draw or Darajani Gogo
44%

Winning margin

Mara Sugar wins by 2+
30%
Darajani Gogo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mara Sugar 1+ goals
80%
Mara Sugar 2+ goals
47%
Mara Sugar 3+ goals
21%
Darajani Gogo 1+ goals
56%
Darajani Gogo 2+ goals
19%
Darajani Gogo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mara Sugar (draw refunded)
75%
Darajani Gogo (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mara Sugar at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.81 · 54 matches

Darajani Gogo away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.28 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mara Sugar attack 1.91 + Darajani Gogo defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.59

Darajani Gogo attack 0.82 + Mara Sugar defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mara Sugar scores more
56%
level
25%
Darajani Gogo scores more
19%

Mara Sugar at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mara Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
P. Nyakwakwa
58'
P. Nyakwakwa
77'
V. Ngume

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mara Sugar vs Darajani Gogo

Mara Sugar beat Darajani Gogo 3-0 in Super League on May 14, 2023.

Goals: P. Nyakwakwa (6', 58'), V. Ngume (77').

The match was played at Green Stadium in Awendo.