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Darajani Gogo vs Mara Sugar — Super League 2018

Darajani Gogo
Darajani Gogo
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Mara Sugar
Mara Sugar
4/20/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 28KIHBT Grounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Darajani Gogo40%
×Draw28%
Mara Sugar32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Darajani Gogo
1.25
Mara Sugar
1.10

Darajani Gogo creates 14% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 52 away

creates per match

Darajani Gogo
1.35
Mara Sugar
1.31

allows per match

Darajani Gogo
0.90
Mara Sugar
1.15

finishing

Darajani Gogo+0.00on par
Mara Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darajani Gogo ↓

Mara Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Darajani Gogo or draw
68%
Darajani Gogo or Mara Sugar
72%
Draw or Mara Sugar
60%

Winning margin

Darajani Gogo wins by 2+
17%
Mara Sugar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Darajani Gogo 1+ goals
71%
Darajani Gogo 2+ goals
36%
Darajani Gogo 3+ goals
13%
Mara Sugar 1+ goals
67%
Mara Sugar 2+ goals
30%
Mara Sugar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Darajani Gogo (draw refunded)
55%
Mara Sugar (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darajani Gogo at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.90 · 72 matches

Mara Sugar away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darajani Gogo attack 1.35 + Mara Sugar defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

Mara Sugar attack 1.31 + Darajani Gogo defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Darajani Gogo scores more
40%
level
28%
Mara Sugar scores more
32%

Darajani Gogo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Darajani Gogo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Darajani Gogo vs Mara Sugar

Mara Sugar beat Darajani Gogo 2-0 in Super League on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at KIHBT Grounds in Ngong Kibiku.