Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mara Sugar vs Dandora Love — Super League 2018

Mara Sugar
Mara Sugar
FT
2 – 0
Dandora Love
Dandora Love
2/5/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 5Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mara Sugar66%
×Draw19%
Dandora Love14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mara Sugar
2.19
Dandora Love
0.91

Mara Sugar creates 141% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 15 away

creates per match

Mara Sugar
1.91
Dandora Love
1.00

allows per match

Mara Sugar
0.81
Dandora Love
2.47

finishing

Mara Sugar+0.00on par
Dandora Love+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mara Sugar ↓

Dandora Love →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Mara Sugar or draw
86%
Mara Sugar or Dandora Love
81%
Draw or Dandora Love
34%

Winning margin

Mara Sugar wins by 2+
43%
Dandora Love wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mara Sugar 1+ goals
89%
Mara Sugar 2+ goals
64%
Mara Sugar 3+ goals
37%
Dandora Love 1+ goals
60%
Dandora Love 2+ goals
23%
Dandora Love 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mara Sugar (draw refunded)
82%
Dandora Love (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mara Sugar at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.81 · 54 matches

Dandora Love away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mara Sugar attack 1.91 + Dandora Love defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.19

Dandora Love attack 1.00 + Mara Sugar defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Mara Sugar scores more
66%
level
19%
Dandora Love scores more
14%

Mara Sugar at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Mara Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mara Sugar vs Dandora Love

Mara Sugar beat Dandora Love 2-0 in Super League on February 5, 2022.

The match was played at Green Stadium in Awendo.