Dandora Love vs Mara Sugar — Super League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 16+ matches
Dandora Love28%
Mara Sugar49%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Mara Sugar creates 36% more chances
Season form · 16 home / 52 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over62
- Under38
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes62
- No38
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Dandora Love ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Dandora Love at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.38 · 16 matches
Mara Sugar away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 52 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Dandora Love attack 1.56 + Mara Sugar defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.35
Mara Sugar attack 1.31 + Dandora Love defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.84
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Mara Sugar at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Mara Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Migori Youth
3K
Equity Bank
Mombasa Elite
MOFA
Fortune Sacco
Naivas
Talanta
Kibera Black Stars
Soy United
Nzoia Sugar
Luanda Villa
Gucha Stars
Kabati Youth FC
Kisumu All Stars
Darajani Gogo
Nairobi City Stars
Vihiga United FC
MCF
Mwatate UnitedIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Dandora Love host Mara Sugar on Sunday, 24 July 2022 at 11:00. The match is part of the Super League 2018/2019 season.
Preview: Dandora Love host Mara Sugar
July 24, 2022: Dandora Love take on Mara Sugar in Super League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
Dandora Love host Mara Sugar at Camp Toyoyo.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.