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Mara Sugar vs Bidco United — FKF Premier League 2025

Mara Sugar
Mara Sugar
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bidco United
Bidco United
Unknown 62'
10/24/2025FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 5Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mara Sugar41%
×Draw35%
Bidco United25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mara Sugar
0.94
Bidco United
0.66

Mara Sugar creates 42% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 22 away

creates per match

Mara Sugar
0.71
Bidco United
0.73

allows per match

Mara Sugar
0.59
Bidco United
1.18

finishing

Mara Sugar+0.00on par
Bidco United+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mara Sugar ↓

Bidco United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Mara Sugar or draw
75%
Mara Sugar or Bidco United
65%
Draw or Bidco United
59%

Winning margin

Mara Sugar wins by 2+
15%
Bidco United wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mara Sugar 1+ goals
61%
Mara Sugar 2+ goals
24%
Mara Sugar 3+ goals
7%
Bidco United 1+ goals
48%
Bidco United 2+ goals
14%
Bidco United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Mara Sugar (draw refunded)
62%
Bidco United (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mara Sugar at home — creates 0.71, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

Bidco United away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mara Sugar attack 0.71 + Bidco United defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.94

Bidco United attack 0.73 + Mara Sugar defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mara Sugar scores more
41%
level
35%
Bidco United scores more
25%

Mara Sugar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mara Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Mara Sugar 0–0 Bidco United

Mara Sugar and Bidco United drew 0-0 in FKF Premier League on October 24, 2025.

Goals: ? (62').

The match was played at Green Stadium in Awendo.