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Bidco United vs Mara Sugar — FKF Premier League 2025

Bidco United
Bidco United
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Mara Sugar
Mara Sugar
M. Isabwa 43'
M. Karani 4'
11/3/2024FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 8Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Bidco United28%
×Draw31%
Mara Sugar41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bidco United
0.84
Mara Sugar
1.10

Mara Sugar creates 31% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 18 away

creates per match

Bidco United
0.58
Mara Sugar
1.11

allows per match

Bidco United
1.08
Mara Sugar
1.11

finishing

Bidco United+0.00on par
Mara Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidco United ↓

Mara Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–116%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bidco United or draw
59%
Bidco United or Mara Sugar
69%
Draw or Mara Sugar
72%

Winning margin

Bidco United wins by 2+
9%
Mara Sugar wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bidco United 1+ goals
57%
Bidco United 2+ goals
21%
Bidco United 3+ goals
5%
Mara Sugar 1+ goals
67%
Mara Sugar 2+ goals
30%
Mara Sugar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bidco United (draw refunded)
40%
Mara Sugar (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidco United at home — creates 0.58, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

Mara Sugar away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidco United attack 0.58 + Mara Sugar defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.84

Mara Sugar attack 1.11 + Bidco United defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bidco United scores more
28%
level
31%
Mara Sugar scores more
41%

Mara Sugar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mara Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
M. Karani
43'
M. Isabwa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bidco United vs Mara Sugar

Mara Sugar beat Bidco United 2-0 in FKF Premier League on November 3, 2024.

Goals: M. Karani (4'), M. Isabwa (43').

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium in Machakos.