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Mar Menor vs Huércal Overa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Mar Menor
Mar Menor
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Huércal Overa
Huércal Overa
11/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 7Estadio El Pitín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Mar Menor60%
×Draw24%
Huércal Overa16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mar Menor
1.69
Huércal Overa
0.75

Mar Menor creates 125% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 47 away

creates per match

Mar Menor
1.71
Huércal Overa
0.79

allows per match

Mar Menor
0.71
Huércal Overa
1.68

finishing

Mar Menor+0.00on par
Huércal Overa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mar Menor ↓

Huércal Overa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mar Menor or draw
84%
Mar Menor or Huércal Overa
76%
Draw or Huércal Overa
40%

Winning margin

Mar Menor wins by 2+
33%
Huércal Overa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mar Menor 1+ goals
82%
Mar Menor 2+ goals
50%
Mar Menor 3+ goals
24%
Huércal Overa 1+ goals
53%
Huércal Overa 2+ goals
17%
Huércal Overa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mar Menor (draw refunded)
79%
Huércal Overa (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mar Menor at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.71 · 28 matches

Huércal Overa away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.68 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mar Menor attack 1.71 + Huércal Overa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.69

Huércal Overa attack 0.79 + Mar Menor defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Mar Menor scores more
60%
level
24%
Huércal Overa scores more
16%

Mar Menor at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Mar Menor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Mar Menor 3–0 Huércal Overa

Mar Menor beat Huércal Overa 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio El Pitín in San Javier.