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Huércal Overa vs Mar Menor — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Huércal Overa
Huércal Overa
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Mar Menor
Mar Menor
2/28/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 18Estadio El Hornillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Huércal Overa24%
×Draw31%
Mar Menor45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huércal Overa
0.77
Mar Menor
1.16

Mar Menor creates 51% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 26 away

creates per match

Huércal Overa
1.04
Mar Menor
1.27

allows per match

Huércal Overa
1.04
Mar Menor
0.50

finishing

Huércal Overa+0.00on par
Mar Menor+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huércal Overa ↓

Mar Menor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–117%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Huércal Overa or draw
55%
Huércal Overa or Mar Menor
69%
Draw or Mar Menor
76%

Winning margin

Huércal Overa wins by 2+
7%
Mar Menor wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Huércal Overa 1+ goals
54%
Huércal Overa 2+ goals
18%
Huércal Overa 3+ goals
4%
Mar Menor 1+ goals
69%
Mar Menor 2+ goals
32%
Mar Menor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Huércal Overa (draw refunded)
35%
Mar Menor (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huércal Overa at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

Mar Menor away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huércal Overa attack 1.04 + Mar Menor defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.77

Mar Menor attack 1.27 + Huércal Overa defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Huércal Overa scores more
24%
level
31%
Mar Menor scores more
45%

Mar Menor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mar Menor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Huércal Overa 0–3 Mar Menor

Mar Menor beat Huércal Overa 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Hornillo in Huércal-Overa.