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Mar Menor vs El Palmar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Mar Menor
Mar Menor
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
El Palmar
El Palmar
11/3/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 11Estadio El Pitín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Mar Menor56%
×Draw25%
El Palmar20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mar Menor
1.65
El Palmar
0.87

Mar Menor creates 90% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 111 away

creates per match

Mar Menor
1.71
El Palmar
1.03

allows per match

Mar Menor
0.71
El Palmar
1.58

finishing

Mar Menor+0.00on par
El Palmar+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mar Menor ↓

El Palmar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mar Menor or draw
80%
Mar Menor or El Palmar
75%
Draw or El Palmar
44%

Winning margin

Mar Menor wins by 2+
30%
El Palmar wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mar Menor 1+ goals
81%
Mar Menor 2+ goals
49%
Mar Menor 3+ goals
23%
El Palmar 1+ goals
58%
El Palmar 2+ goals
22%
El Palmar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mar Menor (draw refunded)
74%
El Palmar (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mar Menor at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.71 · 28 matches

El Palmar away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.58 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mar Menor attack 1.71 + El Palmar defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.65

El Palmar attack 1.03 + Mar Menor defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mar Menor scores more
56%
level
25%
El Palmar scores more
20%

Mar Menor at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mar Menor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mar Menor 5 – 0 El Palmar

Mar Menor beat El Palmar 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio El Pitín in San Javier.