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El Palmar vs Mar Menor — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

El Palmar
El Palmar
CANC
00:00
Mar Menor
Mar Menor
3/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 30Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

El Palmar26%
×Draw28%
Mar Menor45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Palmar
0.92
Mar Menor
1.30

Mar Menor creates 41% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 26 away

creates per match

El Palmar
1.33
Mar Menor
1.27

allows per match

El Palmar
1.33
Mar Menor
0.50

finishing

El Palmar+0.00on par
Mar Menor+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Palmar ↓

Mar Menor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

El Palmar or draw
55%
El Palmar or Mar Menor
72%
Draw or Mar Menor
74%

Winning margin

El Palmar wins by 2+
9%
Mar Menor wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

El Palmar 1+ goals
60%
El Palmar 2+ goals
23%
El Palmar 3+ goals
7%
Mar Menor 1+ goals
73%
Mar Menor 2+ goals
37%
Mar Menor 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

El Palmar (draw refunded)
37%
Mar Menor (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Palmar at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 113 matches

Mar Menor away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Palmar attack 1.33 + Mar Menor defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.92

Mar Menor attack 1.27 + El Palmar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

El Palmar scores more
26%
level
28%
Mar Menor scores more
45%

Mar Menor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mar Menor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

El Palmar face Mar Menor (Tercera División RFEF - Group 13)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 returns with El Palmar hosting Mar Menor. Match starts March 22, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

El Palmar host Mar Menor at Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.