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Mar Menor vs EDMF Churra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Mar Menor
Mar Menor
CANC
00:00
EDMF Churra
EDMF Churra
3/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 31Estadio El Pitín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Mar Menor61%
×Draw23%
EDMF Churra17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mar Menor
1.82
EDMF Churra
0.83

Mar Menor creates 119% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 28 away

creates per match

Mar Menor
1.71
EDMF Churra
0.96

allows per match

Mar Menor
0.71
EDMF Churra
1.93

finishing

Mar Menor+0.00on par
EDMF Churra+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mar Menor ↓

EDMF Churra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mar Menor or draw
83%
Mar Menor or EDMF Churra
77%
Draw or EDMF Churra
39%

Winning margin

Mar Menor wins by 2+
35%
EDMF Churra wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mar Menor 1+ goals
84%
Mar Menor 2+ goals
54%
Mar Menor 3+ goals
27%
EDMF Churra 1+ goals
56%
EDMF Churra 2+ goals
20%
EDMF Churra 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mar Menor (draw refunded)
78%
EDMF Churra (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mar Menor at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.71 · 28 matches

EDMF Churra away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.93 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mar Menor attack 1.71 + EDMF Churra defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.82

EDMF Churra attack 0.96 + Mar Menor defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Mar Menor scores more
61%
level
23%
EDMF Churra scores more
17%

Mar Menor at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Mar Menor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Mar Menor host EDMF Churra

March 29, 2020: Mar Menor take on EDMF Churra in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Mar Menor host EDMF Churra at Estadio El Pitín.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.