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EDMF Churra vs Mar Menor — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

EDMF Churra
EDMF Churra
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Mar Menor
Mar Menor
11/10/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 12Campo de EDMF Churra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

EDMF Churra25%
×Draw31%
Mar Menor44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EDMF Churra
0.80
Mar Menor
1.15

Mar Menor creates 44% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 26 away

creates per match

EDMF Churra
1.10
Mar Menor
1.27

allows per match

EDMF Churra
1.03
Mar Menor
0.50

finishing

EDMF Churra+0.00on par
Mar Menor+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EDMF Churra ↓

Mar Menor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–116%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

EDMF Churra or draw
56%
EDMF Churra or Mar Menor
69%
Draw or Mar Menor
75%

Winning margin

EDMF Churra wins by 2+
8%
Mar Menor wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

EDMF Churra 1+ goals
55%
EDMF Churra 2+ goals
19%
EDMF Churra 3+ goals
5%
Mar Menor 1+ goals
68%
Mar Menor 2+ goals
32%
Mar Menor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

EDMF Churra (draw refunded)
37%
Mar Menor (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EDMF Churra at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

Mar Menor away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EDMF Churra attack 1.10 + Mar Menor defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.80

Mar Menor attack 1.27 + EDMF Churra defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

EDMF Churra scores more
25%
level
31%
Mar Menor scores more
44%

Mar Menor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mar Menor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: EDMF Churra 2–2 Mar Menor

EDMF Churra and Mar Menor drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Campo de EDMF Churra in Murcia.