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Mar Menor vs Atlético Pulpileño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Mar Menor
Mar Menor
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Pulpileño
Atlético Pulpileño
5/2/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2nd Phase - 4Estadio El Pitín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Mar Menor44%
×Draw28%
Atlético Pulpileño27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mar Menor
1.28
Atlético Pulpileño
0.93

Mar Menor creates 38% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 93 away

creates per match

Mar Menor
1.71
Atlético Pulpileño
1.16

allows per match

Mar Menor
0.71
Atlético Pulpileño
0.85

finishing

Mar Menor+0.00on par
Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mar Menor ↓

Atlético Pulpileño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mar Menor or draw
73%
Mar Menor or Atlético Pulpileño
72%
Draw or Atlético Pulpileño
56%

Winning margin

Mar Menor wins by 2+
20%
Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mar Menor 1+ goals
72%
Mar Menor 2+ goals
37%
Mar Menor 3+ goals
14%
Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals
61%
Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals
24%
Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mar Menor (draw refunded)
62%
Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mar Menor at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.71 · 28 matches

Atlético Pulpileño away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.85 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mar Menor attack 1.71 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.28

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.16 + Mar Menor defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mar Menor scores more
44%
level
28%
Atlético Pulpileño scores more
27%

Mar Menor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mar Menor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mar Menor vs Atlético Pulpileño

Mar Menor and Atlético Pulpileño drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on May 2, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Pitín in San Javier.