Atlético Pulpileño 1–0 Mar Menor: Result & Stats

Atlético Pulpileño

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mar Menor

4/11/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2nd Phase - 1Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Atlético Pulpileño33%

×Draw32%

Mar Menor35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético PulpileñoExpected goals in this matchMar Menor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

0.97

Atlético Pulpileño

0.94

Mar Menor

0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 26 away

1.37

creates per match

1.27

0.66

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Atlético Pulpileño

1.37

Mar Menor

1.27

allows per match

Atlético Pulpileño

0.66

Mar Menor

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par

Mar Menor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pulpileño ↓

Mar Menor →

0–015%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Atlético Pulpileño or draw

65%

Atlético Pulpileño or Mar Menor

68%

Draw or Mar Menor

67%

Winning margin

Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+

12%

Mar Menor wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals

61%

Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals

24%

Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals

Mar Menor 1+ goals

62%

Mar Menor 2+ goals

25%

Mar Menor 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)

49%

Mar Menor (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pulpileño at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.66 · 93 matches

Mar Menor away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.37 + Mar Menor defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.94

Mar Menor attack 1.27 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 35%?"

Atlético Pulpileño scores more

33%

level

32%

Mar Menor scores more

35%

Mar Menor at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Mar Menor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Pulpileño vs Mar Menor

Atlético Pulpileño beat Mar Menor 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Pulpí.

Atlético Pulpileño vs Mar Menor — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Atlético Pulpileño vs Mar Menor