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Manzini Wanderers vs Denver — Premier League 2020

Manzini Wanderers
Manzini Wanderers
FT
1 – 0
Denver
Denver
1/28/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Manzini Wanderers31%
×Draw28%
Denver41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manzini Wanderers
1.08
Denver
1.28

Denver creates 19% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 41 away

creates per match

Manzini Wanderers
1.01
Denver
0.85

allows per match

Manzini Wanderers
1.71
Denver
1.15

finishing

Manzini Wanderers+0.00on par
Denver+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manzini Wanderers ↓

Denver →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Manzini Wanderers or draw
59%
Manzini Wanderers or Denver
72%
Draw or Denver
69%

Winning margin

Manzini Wanderers wins by 2+
12%
Denver wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Manzini Wanderers 1+ goals
66%
Manzini Wanderers 2+ goals
29%
Manzini Wanderers 3+ goals
10%
Denver 1+ goals
72%
Denver 2+ goals
37%
Denver 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Manzini Wanderers (draw refunded)
43%
Denver (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manzini Wanderers at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.71 · 70 matches

Denver away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.15 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manzini Wanderers attack 1.01 + Denver defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.08

Denver attack 0.85 + Manzini Wanderers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Manzini Wanderers scores more
31%
level
28%
Denver scores more
41%

Denver at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Denver will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manzini Wanderers vs Denver

Manzini Wanderers beat Denver 1-0 in Premier League on January 28, 2023.

The match was played at Prince of Wales Stadium in Mbabane.