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Denver vs Manzini Wanderers — Premier League 2020

Denver
Denver
FT
5 – 0
Manzini Wanderers
Manzini Wanderers
3/5/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Mavuso Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Denver38%
×Draw28%
Manzini Wanderers34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Denver
1.23
Manzini Wanderers
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 69 away

creates per match

Denver
0.95
Manzini Wanderers
0.99

allows per match

Denver
1.27
Manzini Wanderers
1.52

finishing

Denver+0.00on par
Manzini Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denver ↓

Manzini Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Denver or draw
66%
Denver or Manzini Wanderers
72%
Draw or Manzini Wanderers
62%

Winning margin

Denver wins by 2+
17%
Manzini Wanderers wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Denver 1+ goals
71%
Denver 2+ goals
35%
Denver 3+ goals
13%
Manzini Wanderers 1+ goals
68%
Manzini Wanderers 2+ goals
31%
Manzini Wanderers 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Denver (draw refunded)
53%
Manzini Wanderers (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denver at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.27 · 41 matches

Manzini Wanderers away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.52 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denver attack 0.95 + Manzini Wanderers defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.23

Manzini Wanderers attack 0.99 + Denver defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Denver scores more
38%
level
28%
Manzini Wanderers scores more
34%

Denver at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Denver will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Denver 5–0 Manzini Wanderers

Denver beat Manzini Wanderers 5-0 in Premier League on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Mavuso Sports Centre in Manzini.