Mantova 3–1 Frosinone: Result & Stats | Serie B

Mantova

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Frosinone

M. Aramu 44'

S. Trimboli 38'

D. Bragantini 23'

T. Begić 55'

12/21/2024

Serie B · Round 18Stadio Danilo Martelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Mantova42%

×Draw24%

Frosinone34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MantovaExpected goals in this matchFrosinone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.43

Mantova

1.61

Frosinone

1.43

Mantova creates 13% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

1.48

creates per match

1.75

1.11

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Mantova

1.48

Frosinone

1.75

allows per match

Mantova

1.11

Frosinone

1.74

+0.09on par

finishing

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

Mantova+0.09on par

Frosinone+0.25scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mantova ↓

Frosinone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Mantova or draw

66%

Mantova or Frosinone

76%

Draw or Frosinone

58%

Winning margin

Mantova wins by 2+

21%

Frosinone wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Mantova 1+ goals

80%

Mantova 2+ goals

48%

Mantova 3+ goals

22%

Frosinone 1+ goals

76%

Frosinone 2+ goals

42%

Frosinone 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Mantova (draw refunded)

55%

Frosinone (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mantova at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.11 · 14 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.74 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mantova attack 1.48 + Frosinone defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.61

Frosinone attack 1.75 + Mantova defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mantova scores more

42%

level

24%

Frosinone scores more

34%

Mantova at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mantova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Fiori

Mantova · M

8.3

Match Events

12'

Ebrima Darboe

23'

D. Bragantini↳ D. Mensah

26'

Fabrizio Brignani

38'

S. Trimboli↳ A. Fiori

40'

Ilario Monterisi

44'

M. Aramu↳ D. Mensah

46'

A. Partipilo← F. Ghedjemis

46'

F. Gelli← E. Darboe

51'

Davide Bragantini

54'

F. Galuppini← D. Bragantini

55'

T. Begić

60'

Marco Festa

62'

E. Pecorino← D. Biraschi

66'

Tjaš Begić

69'

D. Wieser← M. Aramu

69'

S. De Maio← F. Brignani

71'

David Wieser

74'

F. Tsadjout← T. Begić

78'

E. Panizzi← C. Bani

78'

L. Mancuso← D. Mensah

82'

İ. Vural← K. Barcella

90+4'

Frank Tsadjout

90'

Gabriele Bracaglia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MantovaFrosinone

Overview

41%Possession59%

14Total Shots14

1Corners8

22Fouls19

Shots

14Total Shots14

7On Target5

6Off Target6

1Blocked3

8Inside Box8

6Outside Box6

Passing

41%Possession59%

325Total Passes441

270Accurate Passes381

83%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

22Fouls19

4Yellow Cards5

2Offsides2