Frosinone 2–1 Mantova: Result & Stats | Serie B

Frosinone

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Mantova

Mateus Lusuardi 18'

M. Festa 2' (OG)

N. Radaelli 11'

3/1/2025

Serie B · Round 28Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Frosinone52%

×Draw23%

Mantova25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrosinoneExpected goals in this matchMantova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.23

Frosinone

1.86

Mantova

1.23

Frosinone creates 51% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

1.94

creates per match

1.33

1.14

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Frosinone

1.94

Mantova

1.33

allows per match

Frosinone

1.14

Mantova

1.79

+0.52scores more than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Frosinone+0.52scores more

Mantova+0.03on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Mantova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw

75%

Frosinone or Mantova

77%

Draw or Mantova

48%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+

29%

Mantova wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals

84%

Frosinone 2+ goals

55%

Frosinone 3+ goals

28%

Mantova 1+ goals

71%

Mantova 2+ goals

35%

Mantova 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)

67%

Mantova (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.14 · 13 matches

Mantova away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.79 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.94 + Mantova defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.86

Mantova attack 1.33 + Frosinone defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Frosinone scores more

52%

level

23%

Mantova scores more

25%

Frosinone at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

47

Mateus Lusuardi

Frosinone · D

8.0

Match Events

2'

M. FestaOwn goal

11'

N. Radaelli↳ F. Galuppini

18'

Mateus Lusuardi↳ E. Bohinen

27'

28'

33'

51'

55'

M. Cichella← E. Bohinen

57'

L. Mancuso← F. Artioli

57'

T. Maggioni← F. Brignani

64'

65'

71'

77'

82'

D. Bragantini← M. Solini

82'

A. Debenedetti← D. Mensah

86'

E. Pecorino← A. Partipilo

87'

G. Kvernadze← G. Ambrosino

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FrosinoneMantova

Overview

32%Possession68%

11Total Shots19

3Corners9

13Fouls18

Shots

11Total Shots19

3On Target3

7Off Target13

1Blocked3

9Inside Box14

2Outside Box5

Passing

32%Possession68%

251Total Passes522

197Accurate Passes467

78%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls18

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1

Serie B: Frosinone 2–1 Mantova

Frosinone beat Mantova 2-1 in Serie B on March 1, 2025.

Goals: M. Festa (2' o.g.), N. Radaelli (11'), Mateus Lusuardi (18').

Mantova controlled possession (68%) and registered 19 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Frosinone.

Frosinone vs Mantova — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Frosinone 2–1 Mantova