Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mantova vs Bari — Serie B 2018

Mantova
Mantova
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bari
Bari
L. Mancuso 90'
A. Meroni 14'
C. Odenthal 16'
2/7/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 23Stadio Danilo Martelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Mantova53%
×Draw26%
Bari22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mantova
1.54
Bari
0.88

Mantova creates 75% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

creates per match

Mantova
1.23
Bari
0.72

allows per match

Mantova
1.04
Bari
1.86

finishing

Mantova+0.15scores more
Bari+0.07on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mantova ↓

Bari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mantova or draw
78%
Mantova or Bari
74%
Draw or Bari
47%

Winning margin

Mantova wins by 2+
27%
Bari wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mantova 1+ goals
79%
Mantova 2+ goals
45%
Mantova 3+ goals
20%
Bari 1+ goals
59%
Bari 2+ goals
22%
Bari 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mantova (draw refunded)
71%
Bari (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mantova at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.04 · 8 matches

Bari away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mantova attack 1.23 + Bari defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.54

Bari attack 0.72 + Mantova defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mantova scores more
53%
level
26%
Bari scores more
22%

Mantova at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mantova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
M. VerrethBariBari · M
7.9

Match Events

14'
A. Meroni
16'
C. Odenthal↳ M. Verreth
32'
Cas Odenthal
33'
Francesco Ruocco
35'
Stefano Cella
45+1'
Simone Trimboli
46'
K. Piscopo← G. De Pieri
57'
V. Mantovani← C. Odenthal
59'
Davis Mensah
68'
N. Radaelli← A. Meroni
68'
D. Bragantini← T. Marras
68'
T. Esteves← E. Rao
68'
M. Cuni← G. Moncini
72'
Michele Cerofolini
77'
L. Mancuso← D. Mensah
77'
N. Buso← F. Ruocco
86'
G. Maggiore← M. Braunoder
90'
L. Mancuso↳ N. Radaelli

Possession

64%Mantova

Shots

16Mantova

Pass accuracy

54%Mantova

Statistics

MantovaBari
Overview
64%Possession36%
16Total Shots3
1.62Expected Goals (xG)0.44
7Corners1
20Fouls28
Shots
16Total Shots3
7On Target2
4Off Target1
5Blocked0
11Inside Box2
5Outside Box1
Passing
64%Possession36%
446Total Passes252
371Accurate Passes178
83%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
0.43Goals Prevented0.43
Discipline
20Fouls28
4Yellow Cards2
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Mantova vs Bari

Mantova beat Bari 2-1 in Serie B on February 7, 2026.

Goals: A. Meroni (14'), C. Odenthal (16'), L. Mancuso (90').

Mantova controlled possession (64%) and registered 16 shots to 3.

The match was played at Stadio Danilo Martelli in Mantova.