Bari 2–0 Mantova: Result & Stats | Serie B

Bari

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mantova

V. Mantovani 89'

N. Lella 31'

9/14/2024

Serie B · Round 5Stadio Comunale San Nicola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Bari47%

×Draw26%

Mantova27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BariExpected goals in this matchMantova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.06

Bari

1.48

Mantova

1.06

Bari creates 40% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 38 away

1.26

creates per match

1.05

1.08

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Bari

1.26

Mantova

1.05

allows per match

Bari

1.08

Mantova

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bari+0.00on par

Mantova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bari ↓

Mantova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bari or draw

73%

Bari or Mantova

74%

Draw or Mantova

53%

Winning margin

Bari wins by 2+

23%

Mantova wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bari 1+ goals

77%

Bari 2+ goals

43%

Bari 3+ goals

19%

Mantova 1+ goals

65%

Mantova 2+ goals

29%

Mantova 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bari (draw refunded)

63%

Mantova (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bari at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.08 · 91 matches

Mantova away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.71 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bari attack 1.26 + Mantova defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.48

Mantova attack 1.05 + Bari defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bari scores more

47%

level

26%

Mantova scores more

27%

Bari at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

93

M. Dorval

Bari · M

8.0

Match Events

15'

Nunzio LellaPenalty cancelled

30'

Nunzio Lella

31'

N. Lella↳ C. Falletti

33'

36'

42'

45'

52'

N. Obaretin← F. Vicari

52'

A. Novakovich← K. Lasagna

59'

L. Mancuso← D. Mensah

67'

L. Sgarbi← C. Falletti

72'

D. Bragantini← F. Galuppini

73'

F. Ruocco← M. Aramu

73'

D. Wieser← A. Fiori

76'

C. Favasuli← M. Dorval

76'

C. Saco← N. Lella

79'

A. Debenedetti← N. Radaelli

81'

Simone Trimboli

83'

Simone TrimboliVAR

89'

V. Mantovani↳ L. Sgarbi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BariMantova

Overview

31%Possession69%

13Total Shots13

5Corners5

30Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots13

2On Target1

5Off Target4

6Blocked8

11Inside Box4

2Outside Box9

Passing

31%Possession69%

257Total Passes609

206Accurate Passes534

80%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

30Fouls7

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1

Serie B: Bari 2–0 Mantova

Bari beat Mantova 2-0 in Serie B on September 14, 2024.

Goals: N. Lella (31'), V. Mantovani (89').

Mantova controlled possession (69%) and registered 13 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola in Bari.

Bari vs Mantova — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Bari 2–0 Mantova