Mantova 0–2 Avellino: Result & Stats | Serie B

Mantova

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Avellino

A. Favilli 86'

F. Missori 63'

4/18/2026

Serie B · Round 35Stadio Danilo Martelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Mantova55%

×Draw26%

Avellino18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MantovaExpected goals in this matchAvellino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.73

Mantova

1.49

Avellino

0.73

Mantova creates 104% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

1.37

creates per match

0.43

1.03

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Mantova

1.37

Avellino

0.43

allows per match

Mantova

1.03

Avellino

1.60

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

Mantova+0.13scores more

Avellino+0.35scores more

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mantova ↓

Avellino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Mantova or draw

82%

Mantova or Avellino

74%

Draw or Avellino

45%

Winning margin

Mantova wins by 2+

29%

Avellino wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Mantova 1+ goals

77%

Mantova 2+ goals

44%

Mantova 3+ goals

19%

Avellino 1+ goals

52%

Avellino 2+ goals

17%

Avellino 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Mantova (draw refunded)

75%

Avellino (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mantova at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.03 · 12 matches

Avellino away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.60 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mantova attack 1.37 + Avellino defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.49

Avellino attack 0.43 + Mantova defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Mantova scores more

55%

level

26%

Avellino scores more

18%

Mantova at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mantova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Iannarilli

Avellino · G

8.3

Match Events

46'

F. Missori← A. Fontanarosa

46'

P. Enrici← T. Biasci

57'

N. Buso← F. Ruocco

57'

N. Radaelli← T. Maggioni

63'

F. Missori↳ L. Palmiero

68'

A. Favilli← C. Patierno

75'

G. Tutino← R. Russo

76'

T. Marras← A. Castellini

76'

M. Besaggio← M. Palumbo

81'

C. Falletti← D. Wieser

86'

A. Favilli↳ A. Izzo

90+3'

Ali Dembélé

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MantovaAvellino

Overview

64%Possession36%

12Total Shots6

1.40Expected Goals (xG)0.36

10Corners2

18Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots6

3On Target3

3Off Target2

6Blocked1

9Inside Box3

3Outside Box3

Passing

64%Possession36%

563Total Passes318

465Accurate Passes226

83%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

0.78Goals Prevented0.78

Discipline

18Fouls12

1Yellow Cards0

0Offsides3