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Avellino vs Mantova — Serie B 2018

Avellino
Avellino
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mantova
Mantova
10/4/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 7Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Avellino45%
×Draw24%
Mantova30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avellino
1.65
Mantova
1.31

Avellino creates 26% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Avellino
1.54
Mantova
1.32

allows per match

Avellino
1.31
Mantova
1.75

finishing

Avellino-0.04on par
Mantova-0.10scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avellino ↓

Mantova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Avellino or draw
70%
Avellino or Mantova
76%
Draw or Mantova
55%

Winning margin

Avellino wins by 2+
24%
Mantova wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Avellino 1+ goals
81%
Avellino 2+ goals
49%
Avellino 3+ goals
23%
Mantova 1+ goals
73%
Mantova 2+ goals
38%
Mantova 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Avellino (draw refunded)
60%
Mantova (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avellino at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.31 · 8 matches

Mantova away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.75 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avellino attack 1.54 + Mantova defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.65

Mantova attack 1.32 + Avellino defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Avellino scores more
45%
level
24%
Mantova scores more
30%

Avellino at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Avellino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
A. IannarilliAvellinoAvellino · G
9.2

Match Events

30'
Z. Majer← F. Paoletti
46'
R. Russo← F. Lescano
46'
M. Besaggio← R. Insigne
46'
T. Marras← D. Bragantini
57'
Maat Daniel Caprini
63'
L. Mancuso← N. Bonfanti
63'
F. Ruocco← M. Caprini
68'
Luca Palmiero
72'
Cristiano Bani
73'
V. Mantovani← C. Bani
75'
V. Crespi← A. Cagnano
75'
A. Milani← F. Missori
76'
Justin Kumi
80'
M. Palumbo← L. Palmiero
88'
Federico Artioli

Possession

41%Avellino

Shots

12Avellino

Pass accuracy

48%Avellino

Statistics

AvellinoMantova
Overview
41%Possession59%
12Total Shots19
8Corners7
13Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots19
6On Target11
4Off Target3
2Blocked5
8Inside Box6
4Outside Box13
Passing
41%Possession59%
313Total Passes470
260Accurate Passes417
83%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
12Saves5
Discipline
13Fouls13
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Avellino vs Mantova

Avellino and Mantova drew 0-0 in Serie B on October 4, 2025.

Mantova controlled possession (59%) and registered 19 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi in Avellino.