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Manthiqueira vs Inter de Bebedouro — Paulista Série B 2026

Manthiqueira
Manthiqueira
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Inter de Bebedouro
Inter de Bebedouro
Unknown 17'
Lorenzo 85'
V. Almeida 81', 71'
7/13/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 2nd Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Professor Dario Rodrigues Leite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Manthiqueira22%
×Draw25%
Inter de Bebedouro52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manthiqueira
0.94
Inter de Bebedouro
1.58

Inter de Bebedouro creates 68% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 10 away

creates per match

Manthiqueira
1.28
Inter de Bebedouro
1.60

allows per match

Manthiqueira
1.56
Inter de Bebedouro
0.60

finishing

Manthiqueira+0.00on par
Inter de Bebedouro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 54Over: 4654%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 52Yes: 4852%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manthiqueira ↓

Inter de Bebedouro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Manthiqueira or draw
48%
Manthiqueira or Inter de Bebedouro
75%
Draw or Inter de Bebedouro
78%

Winning margin

Manthiqueira wins by 2+
8%
Inter de Bebedouro wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Manthiqueira 1+ goals
61%
Manthiqueira 2+ goals
24%
Manthiqueira 3+ goals
7%
Inter de Bebedouro 1+ goals
79%
Inter de Bebedouro 2+ goals
47%
Inter de Bebedouro 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Manthiqueira (draw refunded)
30%
Inter de Bebedouro (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manthiqueira at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

Inter de Bebedouro away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manthiqueira attack 1.28 + Inter de Bebedouro defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.94

Inter de Bebedouro attack 1.60 + Manthiqueira defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Manthiqueira scores more
22%
level
25%
Inter de Bebedouro scores more
52%

Inter de Bebedouro at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Inter de Bebedouro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
71'
V. Almeida
81'
V. Almeida
85'
Lorenzo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Manthiqueira 1 – 3 Inter de Bebedouro

Inter de Bebedouro beat Manthiqueira 3-1 in Paulista Série B on July 13, 2024.

Goals: ? (17'), V. Almeida (71', 81'), Lorenzo (85').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Professor Dario Rodrigues Leite in Guaratinguetá, São Paulo.