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Inter de Bebedouro vs Manthiqueira — Paulista Série B 2026

Inter de Bebedouro
Inter de Bebedouro
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
Manthiqueira
Manthiqueira
Lorenzo 45+1', 15'
V. Almeida 38'
S. Alan 45+4'
Pedro Ibelli 7'
7/20/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 2nd Phase - 4Estádio Sócrates Stamato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Inter de Bebedouro52%
×Draw23%
Manthiqueira25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter de Bebedouro
1.88
Manthiqueira
1.23

Inter de Bebedouro creates 53% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 17 away

creates per match

Inter de Bebedouro
1.10
Manthiqueira
1.35

allows per match

Inter de Bebedouro
1.10
Manthiqueira
2.65

finishing

Inter de Bebedouro+0.00on par
Manthiqueira+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter de Bebedouro ↓

Manthiqueira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Inter de Bebedouro or draw
75%
Inter de Bebedouro or Manthiqueira
77%
Draw or Manthiqueira
48%

Winning margin

Inter de Bebedouro wins by 2+
30%
Manthiqueira wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Inter de Bebedouro 1+ goals
85%
Inter de Bebedouro 2+ goals
56%
Inter de Bebedouro 3+ goals
29%
Manthiqueira 1+ goals
71%
Manthiqueira 2+ goals
35%
Manthiqueira 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Inter de Bebedouro (draw refunded)
68%
Manthiqueira (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter de Bebedouro at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Manthiqueira away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter de Bebedouro attack 1.10 + Manthiqueira defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.88

Manthiqueira attack 1.35 + Inter de Bebedouro defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Inter de Bebedouro scores more
52%
level
23%
Manthiqueira scores more
25%

Inter de Bebedouro at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Inter de Bebedouro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
Pedro Ibelli
15'
Lorenzo
38'
V. Almeida
45+1'
Lorenzo
45+4'
S. Alan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Inter de Bebedouro 3–2 Manthiqueira

Inter de Bebedouro beat Manthiqueira 3-2 in Paulista Série B on July 20, 2024.

Goals: Pedro Ibelli (7'), Lorenzo (15', 45+1'), V. Almeida (38'), S. Alan (45+4').

The match was played at Estádio Sócrates Stamato in Bebedouro, São Paulo.