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Manthiqueira vs Barcelona EC — Paulista Série B 2026

Manthiqueira
Manthiqueira
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Barcelona EC
Barcelona EC
Khevin 89'
Danilo Regio 78'
Danilo 39'
5/9/2026Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Manthiqueira68%
×Draw19%
Barcelona EC13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manthiqueira
2.19
Barcelona EC
0.84

Manthiqueira creates 161% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

creates per match

Manthiqueira
1.28
Barcelona EC
0.11

allows per match

Manthiqueira
1.56
Barcelona EC
3.11

finishing

Manthiqueira+0.00on par
Barcelona EC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 50Yes: 5050%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manthiqueira ↓

Barcelona EC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Manthiqueira or draw
87%
Manthiqueira or Barcelona EC
81%
Draw or Barcelona EC
32%

Winning margin

Manthiqueira wins by 2+
44%
Barcelona EC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Manthiqueira 1+ goals
89%
Manthiqueira 2+ goals
64%
Manthiqueira 3+ goals
37%
Barcelona EC 1+ goals
57%
Barcelona EC 2+ goals
21%
Barcelona EC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Manthiqueira (draw refunded)
84%
Barcelona EC (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manthiqueira at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

Barcelona EC away — creates 0.11, concedes 3.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manthiqueira attack 1.28 + Barcelona EC defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.19

Barcelona EC attack 0.11 + Manthiqueira defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Manthiqueira scores more
68%
level
19%
Barcelona EC scores more
13%

Manthiqueira at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Manthiqueira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
Danilo
78'
Danilo Regio
89'
Khevin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Manthiqueira vs Barcelona EC

Manthiqueira beat Barcelona EC 2-1 in Paulista Série B on May 9, 2026.

Goals: Danilo (39'), Danilo Regio (78'), Khevin (89').