Barcelona EC 1–5 Manthiqueira: Result & Stats

Barcelona EC

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 1

Manthiqueira

Unknown 29'

Unknown 87', 82', 77', 65', 36'

6/14/2026

Paulista Série B · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Barcelona EC30%

×Draw22%

Manthiqueira49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona ECExpected goals in this matchManthiqueira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

2.01

Barcelona EC

1.54

Manthiqueira

2.01

Manthiqueira creates 31% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 17 away

0.44

creates per match

1.35

2.67

allows per match

2.65

creates per match

Barcelona EC

0.44

Manthiqueira

1.35

allows per match

Barcelona EC

2.67

Manthiqueira

2.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcelona EC+0.00on par

Manthiqueira+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona EC ↓

Manthiqueira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Barcelona EC or draw

51%

Barcelona EC or Manthiqueira

78%

Draw or Manthiqueira

70%

Winning margin

Barcelona EC wins by 2+

14%

Manthiqueira wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Barcelona EC 1+ goals

79%

Barcelona EC 2+ goals

45%

Barcelona EC 3+ goals

20%

Manthiqueira 1+ goals

87%

Manthiqueira 2+ goals

59%

Manthiqueira 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Barcelona EC (draw refunded)

38%

Manthiqueira (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona EC at home — creates 0.44, concedes 2.67 · 9 matches

Manthiqueira away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona EC attack 0.44 + Manthiqueira defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.54

Manthiqueira attack 1.35 + Barcelona EC defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Barcelona EC scores more

30%

level

22%

Manthiqueira scores more

49%

Manthiqueira at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Manthiqueira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

36'

65'

77'

82'

87'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff