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Manta FC vs LDU de Quito — Liga Pro 2026

Manta FC
Manta FC
Preview
00:00
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
7/23/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 21Estadio Jocay
Big match
41%
LDU de Quito
model favours
32%27%41%

LDU de Quito score first in only 24% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Manta FC32%
×Draw27%
LDU de Quito41%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manta FC
1.15
LDU de Quito
1.33

LDU de Quito creates 16% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 136 away

creates per match

Manta FC
1.16
LDU de Quito
1.37

allows per match

Manta FC
1.30
LDU de Quito
1.15

finishing

Manta FC+0.00on par
LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manta FC ↓

LDU de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Manta FC or draw
59%
Manta FC or LDU de Quito
73%
Draw or LDU de Quito
68%

Winning margin

Manta FC wins by 2+
13%
LDU de Quito wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Manta FC 1+ goals
68%
Manta FC 2+ goals
32%
Manta FC 3+ goals
11%
LDU de Quito 1+ goals
74%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
38%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Manta FC (draw refunded)
44%
LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manta FC at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.30 · 43 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.15 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manta FC attack 1.16 + LDU de Quito defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

LDU de Quito attack 1.37 + Manta FC defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Manta FC scores more
32%
level
27%
LDU de Quito scores more
41%

LDU de Quito at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Manta FC score first in only 31% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 31% of Manta FC’s matches
  • LDU de Quito matches are rarely goalless — only 3.4% end 0-0
  • Style contrast — Manta FC play Direct / counter-attacking, LDU de Quito Defensively solid
  • 37% of LDU de Quito’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Manta FC fall short of their xG (0.6 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Manta FC
Direct / counter-attacking
LDU de Quito
Defensively solid
45%Possession55%
71%Pass accuracy81%
7.7ShotsBiggest gap13.2
1.32xG1.32
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Manta FCLDU de Quito

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

0
Manta FC
3
Draws
3
LDU de Quito
Avg goals: 1.8BTTS: 50%
0–11–11–10–12–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
FC
LDLWL
Quito
LLDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Manta FC face LDU de Quito (Liga Pro)

Liga Pro returns with Manta FC hosting LDU de Quito. Match starts July 23, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Manta FC host LDU de Quito at Estadio Jocay.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.