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LDU de Quito vs Manta FC — Liga Pro 2026

LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Manta FC
Manta FC
3/22/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 6Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

LDU de Quito61%
×Draw23%
Manta FC16%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LDU de Quito
1.82
Manta FC
0.82

LDU de Quito creates 122% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 42 away

creates per match

LDU de Quito
1.91
Manta FC
0.76

allows per match

LDU de Quito
0.88
Manta FC
1.74

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par
Manta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Manta FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw
84%
LDU de Quito or Manta FC
77%
Draw or Manta FC
39%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+
35%
Manta FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals
84%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
54%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
27%
Manta FC 1+ goals
56%
Manta FC 2+ goals
20%
Manta FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
79%
Manta FC (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.88 · 134 matches

Manta FC away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.74 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 1.91 + Manta FC defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.82

Manta FC attack 0.76 + LDU de Quito defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

LDU de Quito scores more
61%
level
23%
Manta FC scores more
16%

LDU de Quito at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: LDU de Quito 1–0 Manta FC

LDU de Quito beat Manta FC 1-0 in Liga Pro on March 22, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito.