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Manta FC vs LDU de Quito — Copa Ecuador 2022

Manta FC
Manta FC
FT
0 – 1
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
6/5/2022Copa EcuadorCopa Ecuador · 2nd RoundEstadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Manta FC24%
×Draw24%
LDU de Quito52%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manta FC
1.04
LDU de Quito
1.67

LDU de Quito creates 61% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Manta FC
1.33
LDU de Quito
2.00

allows per match

Manta FC
1.33
LDU de Quito
0.75

finishing

Manta FC+0.00on par
LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manta FC ↓

LDU de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Manta FC or draw
48%
Manta FC or LDU de Quito
76%
Draw or LDU de Quito
76%

Winning margin

Manta FC wins by 2+
9%
LDU de Quito wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Manta FC 1+ goals
65%
Manta FC 2+ goals
28%
Manta FC 3+ goals
9%
LDU de Quito 1+ goals
81%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
50%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Manta FC (draw refunded)
31%
LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manta FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manta FC attack 1.33 + LDU de Quito defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.04

LDU de Quito attack 2.00 + Manta FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Manta FC scores more
24%
level
24%
LDU de Quito scores more
52%

LDU de Quito at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Ecuador: Manta FC 0–1 LDU de Quito

LDU de Quito beat Manta FC 1-0 in Copa Ecuador on June 5, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Jocay in Manta.