Manta FC 0–4 Emelec: Result & Stats | Liga Pro

Manta FC

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Emelec

S. Rodríguez 84'

F. Barcelo 66', 43'

D. Arroyo 5'

7/18/2021

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 15Estadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Manta FC43%

×Draw28%

Emelec29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manta FCExpected goals in this matchEmelec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.98

Manta FC

1.26

Emelec

0.98

Manta FC creates 29% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

0.89

creates per match

0.80

1.17

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Manta FC

0.89

Emelec

0.80

allows per match

Manta FC

1.17

Emelec

1.63

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Manta FC-0.09on par

Emelec+0.20scores more

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manta FC ↓

Emelec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Manta FC or draw

71%

Manta FC or Emelec

72%

Draw or Emelec

57%

Winning margin

Manta FC wins by 2+

19%

Emelec wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Manta FC 1+ goals

72%

Manta FC 2+ goals

36%

Manta FC 3+ goals

13%

Emelec 1+ goals

62%

Emelec 2+ goals

26%

Emelec 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Manta FC (draw refunded)

60%

Emelec (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manta FC at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.17 · 5 matches

Emelec away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.63 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manta FC attack 0.89 + Emelec defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.26

Emelec attack 0.80 + Manta FC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Manta FC scores more

43%

level

28%

Emelec scores more

29%

Manta FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Manta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

D. Arroyo↳ F. Barcelo

43'

F. Barcelo↳ S. Rodríguez

46'

G. Bustamante← J. Domínguez

56'

Romario Caicedo

58'

Dixon Arroyo

64'

C. Cuero← K. Triviño

64'

J. Mesias← I. Trelles

66'

F. Barcelo↳ A. Cabeza

67'

Nicolás Prieto

69'

J. Cevallos← A. Cabeza

69'

J. Caicedo← J. Rojas

75'

J. Orejuela← D. Arroyo

75'

A. Bangoura← R. Caicedo

80'

M. Romero← Á. Ledesma

84'

S. Rodríguez

87'

O. Bagüí← J. Rodríguez

Possession

Shots

Statistics

MantaEmelec

Overview

45%Possession55%

5Total Shots9

5Corners6

16Fouls22

Shots

5Total Shots9

3On Target6

2Off Target3

Passing

45%Possession55%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls22

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

0Offsides2