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Manta FC vs Emelec — Liga Pro 2025

Manta FC
Manta FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Emelec
Emelec
5/17/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 14Estadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Manta FC43%
×Draw28%
Emelec29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manta FC
1.27
Emelec
1.00

Manta FC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 28 away

creates per match

Manta FC
1.21
Emelec
0.79

allows per match

Manta FC
1.21
Emelec
1.32

finishing

Manta FC+0.00on par
Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manta FC ↓

Emelec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Manta FC or draw
71%
Manta FC or Emelec
72%
Draw or Emelec
57%

Winning margin

Manta FC wins by 2+
19%
Emelec wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Manta FC 1+ goals
72%
Manta FC 2+ goals
36%
Manta FC 3+ goals
14%
Emelec 1+ goals
63%
Emelec 2+ goals
26%
Emelec 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Manta FC (draw refunded)
59%
Emelec (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manta FC at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.21 · 29 matches

Emelec away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manta FC attack 1.21 + Emelec defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Emelec attack 0.79 + Manta FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Manta FC scores more
43%
level
28%
Emelec scores more
29%

Manta FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Manta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
F. LeonEmelecEmelec · D
7.9

Match Events

46'
M. Valencia← A. Medina
59'
L. Fragozo← F. Pizzini
59'
S. Quintero← G. Napoli
68'
J. Blanco← J. Chala
80'
J. Troya← J. Angulo
83'
Juan Nazareno
84'
A. Viteri← V. Griffith
90+2'
Maikel Valencia

Possession

40%Manta

Shots

13Manta

Pass accuracy

44%Manta

Statistics

MantaEmelec
Overview
40%Possession60%
13Total Shots11
6Corners6
13Fouls12
Shots
13Total Shots11
1On Target2
9Off Target5
3Blocked4
10Inside Box7
3Outside Box4
Passing
40%Possession60%
227Total Passes346
130Accurate Passes257
57%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls12
2Yellow Cards0
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Manta FC vs Emelec

Manta FC and Emelec drew 0-0 in Liga Pro on May 17, 2026.

Emelec controlled possession (60%) and registered 11 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Jocay in Manta.