Emelec 1–1 Manta FC: Result & Stats | Liga Pro

Emelec

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Manta FC

A. Madruga 54' (OG)

C. Aleman 80'

4/6/2025

Liga Pro · Round 7Estadio George Capwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Emelec55%

×Draw26%

Manta FC19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmelecExpected goals in this matchManta FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.80

Emelec

1.54

Manta FC

0.80

Emelec creates 93% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 29 away

1.23

creates per match

0.66

0.94

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Emelec

1.23

Manta FC

0.66

allows per match

Emelec

0.94

Manta FC

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par

Manta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Manta FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Emelec or draw

81%

Emelec or Manta FC

74%

Draw or Manta FC

45%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+

29%

Manta FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals

79%

Emelec 2+ goals

45%

Emelec 3+ goals

20%

Manta FC 1+ goals

55%

Manta FC 2+ goals

19%

Manta FC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)

74%

Manta FC (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.94 · 31 matches

Manta FC away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.86 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.23 + Manta FC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.54

Manta FC attack 0.66 + Emelec defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Emelec scores more

55%

level

26%

Manta FC scores more

19%

Emelec at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

R. Caicedo

Emelec · D

7.9

Match Events

45'

Fabrizio Almeida

49'

G. Bartora← J. Penarrieta

54'

A. MadrugaOwn goal

60'

J. Zambrano← E. Zorrilla

61'

D. Leiton← D. Cabezas

62'

Jhon Sanchez← W. Corozo

66'

Pedro Ortiz

70'

C. Valencia← E. Munoz

74'

Facundo Castelli

76'

M. Valencia← F. Ospitaleche

76'

A. Castillo← F. Almeida

80'

J. Valverde← R. Borja

80'

T. Chamba← M. Solis

80'

C. Aleman↳ D. Valencia

82'

Daniel Valencia

90+6'

Jordano Zambrano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EmelecManta

Overview

61%Possession39%

11Total Shots7

3Corners4

14Fouls19

Shots

11Total Shots7

3On Target1

6Off Target4

2Blocked2

7Inside Box3

4Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

373Total Passes242

307Accurate Passes174

82%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls19

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0