Manta FC 2–1 9 de Octubre: Result & Stats

Manta FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

9 de Octubre

10/3/2024

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 32Estadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Manta FC47%

×Draw28%

9 de Octubre25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manta FCExpected goals in this match9 de Octubre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.87

Manta FC

1.31

9 de Octubre

0.87

Manta FC creates 51% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 69 away

1.43

creates per match

0.88

0.86

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Manta FC

1.43

9 de Octubre

0.88

allows per match

Manta FC

0.86

9 de Octubre

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manta FC+0.00on par

9 de Octubre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manta FC ↓

9 de Octubre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Manta FC or draw

75%

Manta FC or 9 de Octubre

72%

Draw or 9 de Octubre

53%

Winning margin

Manta FC wins by 2+

22%

9 de Octubre wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Manta FC 1+ goals

73%

Manta FC 2+ goals

38%

Manta FC 3+ goals

14%

9 de Octubre 1+ goals

58%

9 de Octubre 2+ goals

22%

9 de Octubre 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Manta FC (draw refunded)

65%

9 de Octubre (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manta FC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.86 · 104 matches

9 de Octubre away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.20 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manta FC attack 1.43 + 9 de Octubre defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.31

9 de Octubre attack 0.88 + Manta FC defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Manta FC scores more

47%

level

28%

9 de Octubre scores more

25%

Manta FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Manta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff