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9 de Octubre vs Manta FC — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

9 de Octubre
9 de Octubre
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Manta FC
Manta FC
3/13/2024Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 1Estadio Alejandro Ponce Noboa de Fertisa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

9 de Octubre49%
×Draw27%
Manta FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

9 de Octubre
1.39
Manta FC
0.86

9 de Octubre creates 62% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 104 away

creates per match

9 de Octubre
1.51
Manta FC
0.91

allows per match

9 de Octubre
0.81
Manta FC
1.27

finishing

9 de Octubre+0.00on par
Manta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

9 de Octubre ↓

Manta FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

9 de Octubre or draw
77%
9 de Octubre or Manta FC
73%
Draw or Manta FC
51%

Winning margin

9 de Octubre wins by 2+
24%
Manta FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

9 de Octubre 1+ goals
75%
9 de Octubre 2+ goals
40%
9 de Octubre 3+ goals
16%
Manta FC 1+ goals
58%
Manta FC 2+ goals
21%
Manta FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

9 de Octubre (draw refunded)
68%
Manta FC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

9 de Octubre at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.81 · 70 matches

Manta FC away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

9 de Octubre attack 1.51 + Manta FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.39

Manta FC attack 0.91 + 9 de Octubre defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

9 de Octubre scores more
49%
level
27%
Manta FC scores more
23%

9 de Octubre at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "9 de Octubre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

9 de Octubre 0 – 3 Manta FC

Manta FC beat 9 de Octubre 3-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on March 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Ponce Noboa de Fertisa in Guayaquil.