Mansfield Town vs Swindon Town

Mansfield Town

CANC

00:00

Swindon Town

3/31/2020

League Two · Round 36One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Mansfield Town41%

×Draw25%

Swindon Town34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mansfield TownExpected goals in this matchSwindon Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.35

Mansfield Town

1.52

Swindon Town

1.35

Mansfield Town creates 13% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 139 away

1.60

creates per match

1.49

1.22

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Mansfield Town

1.60

Swindon Town

1.49

allows per match

Mansfield Town

1.22

Swindon Town

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Swindon Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw

66%

Mansfield Town or Swindon Town

75%

Draw or Swindon Town

59%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

20%

Swindon Town wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

78%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

45%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

20%

Swindon Town 1+ goals

74%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

39%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

55%

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.22 · 139 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.60 + Swindon Town defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.52

Swindon Town attack 1.49 + Mansfield Town defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mansfield Town scores more

41%

level

25%

Swindon Town scores more

34%

Mansfield Town at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff